New Hope (000876): Better pig breeding business drives growth this year
We expect net profit attributable to mothers in 2019 of 48.
300,000 yuan, 183 per year.
4% We expect New Hope to return to net profit in 201948.
300,000 yuan, 183 per year.
4%, the increase in performance was mainly due to rising pig prices to promote the release of hog breeding profits, and the profitability of the poultry industry is improving.
Attention points The pig breeding business supports this year’s profit increase: According to the company’s announcement, the company will sell 3.55 million pigs in 2019, and the pig breeding business will contribute to the performance.
100 million US dollars, corresponding to an average profit of about 623 yuan, of which we estimate 杭州夜网 the average profit of about 400 yuan in the outsourcing piglet model, about 2.15 million heads, and the average profit of about 1,000 yuan in the self-finishing model, about 1.4 million heads.
Looking forward, we believe that the company’s pig breeding business will continue to make room for profit in 2020.
In general, based on the current supply and demand pattern of live pigs, we estimate that the industry’s prosperity is better this year, and the average head profit is still expected to remain at a high level; instead, the company’s production capacity continues to increase, and the number of listings is expected to increase this year.The number of slaughter is expected to reach 8 million (including about 2 million piglets purchased).
Considering the company’s effective epidemic prevention and control and the rapid growth of the breeding stock, we are optimistic about the company’s volume opportunities this year.
The performance contribution of the poultry business and the feed business reached the same stability. According to the company’s announcement, in 2019 the company’s poultry breeding business, the feed business performance contribution exceeded 1 billion yuan.
Looking forward to this year’s operating indicators, we believe that the company’s poultry meat business can maintain high profits due to the excess consumption of live pigs to drive consumption of poultry substitutes.
In the feed sector, we believe that the sales of pig feed will have a certain chance of recovery, and poultry feed will also benefit from the high prosperity of the poultry industry chain.
Overall, we judge that the company’s performance contribution to the poultry and feed business is expected to be stable this year.
The epidemic has impacted poultry prices and affected logistics in the short term, but has no obstacles to growth this year: after the Spring Festival, due to the impact of avian influenza epidemic and new crown pneumonia, live bird trading and transportation were blocked, losses caused by poultry farmers to fill up stalls, poultry seedlings and poultryPrices weakened for a while, but we judge that as the weather warms, the impact of the bird flu epidemic will gradually disappear, and the new crown epidemic has also stabilized recently, and bird prices may recover.
Considering the current off-season production of the company’s poultry sector, we judge that this has limited impact on the company’s performance.
Similarly, the transportation of feed and pigs after the Spring Festival is restricted to some extent, but the transportation problem has gradually eased recently. We believe that the impact on the overall production and operation of the company is short-lived and alternately controllable.
Estimates and recommendations are corresponding to 7/9 times P / E in 2020/21.
Considering that the company’s hog breeding business has benefited from high profitability and growth, we have raised our net profit forecast for mothers in 2019/20.
7% / 36.
7% to 48.
7.5 billion and?
2021 forecast 99.
However, based on the estimated hub after the release of earnings, we maintain the company’s target price of 30.
0 yuan, corresponding to 10/13 times P / E in 2020/21, + 43% space.
Maintain Outperform rating.
Risky pig production volume is less than expected, raw material prices fluctuate; animal epidemic risk.